Wednesday, April 27, 2011

The Cub Shows His Paws

Anna Hazare: My Prime Minister

The bellicose posture by Pyongyang may well be an external manifestation of legitimisation of its heir-apparent

In Sicilian Mafioso set-up, a rookie is considered a na'vet' till the time he has not 'made his bones' i.e. to prove his skills in the warfare. It appears, the family line of Kim II-Sung in North Korea has taken the leaf out of the Sicilian code.

The sinking of South Korean warship Cheonan ' which the UN fact finding committee blamed on North Korea ' at the time of the possible announcement of succession in Pyongyang has turned the attention towards the Korean peninsula.

There are several questions regarding the motivation of North behind this attack. It's at all times tricky to define North Korean motivations, principally for the reason that it's the most opaque nation in the world. The foremost explanation could be that it's an unswerving vengeance for a surface ship row between the two Koreas that took place in late 2009 in the Yellow Sea, in which a lone North Korean sailor was allegedly killed. That's a tit-for-tat rationalisation. However, sources close to The Sunday Indian maintain that it might not be the only case. The event might be a "peripheral manifestation of legitimisation" on the part of North Korean leader Kim Jong-II's preferred successor and heir-apparent, his youngest son Kim Jong-un. To put it in perspective, it can be recalled that when Kim Jong-II, the incumbent, himself became the chosen heir to his father Kim II-Sung, a similar type of legitimisation course took place in which Kim Jong-II was held to be liable for numerous of the actions in the 1980s ' the Korean Air 858 explosion in 1987 and the partial massacre of the South Korean cabinet while it was on a state visit to Burma in 1983.

'It has been witnessed several times in the past that when the successors do not have the revolutionary qualifications or radical credentials of the original leader, the successors frequently apply these tactics to legitimise themselves,' says Victor D. Cha, Senior Advisor on Korean affairs at Centre for Strategic and International Studies, while talking to TSI.

So what are the credentials of Jong-un? There is very little about him in public domain. He has studied in Switzerland and is in his late 20s. But since he is way too young to lead, sources maintain that the authority would be passed to him in combination with Kim Jong-II's sister, Kim Kyung-Hee, and her husband, Chang Song-taek. But the heir would get to keep members of the military as well as the party with him. And as far as military training is concerned, Jong-un does not have much experience behind him. But he has indeed been seen at very low political levels of the National Defence Commission. However, no one is sure if that will be enough to keep him in the good books of Army's old guards. And whatever the world thinks, Jong-II too had tough time keeping armed forces in order. There were no less than two coup attempts against Kim Jong-II's own succession. In the late 1991 or early 1992, sources claim, there was an attempted rebellion by a cluster of Soviet-trained perestroika-favouring generals. A dozen odd generals conspired to snuff out the two Kims and apply sweeping reconstruction of North Korea. However, their cover was blown and the plotters, according to one version, were burnt on the stake in front of a military audience ostensibly as a warning. Similarly, in 1995, some of the factions of the 6th Army Corps in North Hamgyong province bordering China decided to join ranks with the rogue elements of the adjoining 7th Army Corps and planned to march on Pyongyang. However, this potentially threatening conspiracy was uncovered by 6th Corps commander, Kim Yong-chun, who was promoted to be the chief of the general staff in gratitude.

Under the circumstances, the succession of Jong-un will not be smooth as well. Therefore, Pyongyang has been abuzz with the news of restructuring and possible shuffles in the party and the military order.

'Kim Jong-II wants to construct a bellicose ambience at the domestic front to push through with the succession of authority to his son,' said Cheon Seong-whun, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification while talking to TSI. 'However, to achieve this, he needs tensions and an outside foe.'

Kim Jong-II's most strenuous labours seem to be focussed at the armed forces, the vital power pedestal for his son. In good measure, he has also promoted no less than 100 senior officers in April this year. While its armed forces keep South Korea on tenterhooks by firing coastal weaponry, North Korea's power elite is all set to officiate the hitherto unofficial status of Kim Jong-un as the nation's next 'Dear Leader'. But there are official procedures to keep as theoretically North Korea is run by the Workers' Party. The Workers' Party is likely to give Jong-un and his cohort plum posts at the upcoming Central Committee meeting. Sources maintain that since July last year, Jong-un has already started taking part in the formulation of Pyongyang's internal and external domestic and international policies.

Jong-un began managing North Korea's secret police agency since last year. In fact, sources suggested that all bureaucratic reports made to Kim Jong-II has already started going through Jong-un. Therefore, Workers' Party will have to offer him a post that is worthy of his stature. In all probability, that post could be that of an Organisational Secretary of the party's Central Committee. The Committee exercises the maximum authority on the committee. As the heir-apparent, the young man also reportedly confers with a number of high-status officials or minions of his father that uphold the Kim family's sway on the nation. His uncle Chang Song-taek instructs him on the Pyongyang's finances and associations with China while Kim Yong-chun is in charge of the armed forces. Chang and Chun are two of the four vice chairmen of the National Defence Commission, nation's in effect utmost guiding appendage. North Korea's armed forces, which were formerly guarded by Kim Jong-II's direct orders, came under defence minister Kim Yong-chun's command in April 2009. While Chun controls the nation's troops for conventional combat, Kim Jong-II administers the strategic troops that deal with missiles and nuclear weapons. The latter, without question, will pass on to Jong-un.

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